Siachen: Can India and Pakistan clear the world's highest front from the presence of forces?
Following the recent statement by Indian Army Chief General Manoj Makanda Narawane that India is not against withdrawing troops from the Siachen Glacier, which is considered to be the highest battlefield in the world, the debate on whether the Siachen Glacier has resumed. The area can become a non-military area (free from the presence of forces) or not.
Addressing the annual press conference yesterday (January 12), General Manoj Narawane said that India was not against the withdrawal of troops from the Siachen Glacier.
"We are not against the demilitarization of the Siachen Glacier, but the precondition for this is that Pakistan must accept the Actual Ground Position Line (AGPL)," he said.
What is the actual ground position line?
''The Actual Ground Position Line (AGPL) is the line that identifies the current positions of Pakistani and Indian forces on the Siachen Glacier.'' The 110 km long line starts from the last point north of the Line of Control dividing Pakistan and Indian-administered Kashmir.
"This is the real ground position," said General Nervane. Pakistan has to recognize what their position is and what our position is. And we have to agree on that before any engagement. "
He also said that the situation is similar to what India is facing in East Ladakh. "First you have to disengage, then you can disengage, which is another name for demilitarizing the area. Recognizing the AGPL is the first step in this process and it is something that Pakistan dislikes.
There has been no reaction from the Pakistani government or army to the recent statement of the Indian Army Chief.
What is the dispute between Pakistan and India over AGPL?
The Siachen Glacier, known as the highest battlefield in the world, has been a disputed area between India and Pakistan since 1984.
India's Army Chief General Narawane said in a statement that "the Line of Control (LoC) was cleared up to NJ 9842 and Pakistan tried to occupy beyond that point in response to which they had to take action".
Ejaz Awan, a former major general in the Pakistan Army and a defense analyst, told BBC Urdu that after the 1971 war, the last point north of the Line of Control between the two countries was the area beyond NJ 9847. I did not demarcate the border on the ground, but in principle it was agreed on the map and the area beyond it was assumed that no one would occupy it.
According to him, in late 1982, India violated it and occupied the territories while Pakistan was working with the United States against the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.
Major General (retd) Ijaz Awan claims that India took advantage of this opportunity and came and sat on the high peaks and since then he has not been evacuating it. According to him, India wanted to move to the northwest in Siachen area and Pakistan wanted to move towards the northeast peaks.
When the two countries accuse each other of trying to occupy the Siachen area, how likely is it that the two countries' armies will withdraw from Siachen in this situation?
Is it possible to withdraw troops from Siachen?
In response to this question, Major General (Retd.) Ijaz Awan said that if India recognizes it as a disputed territory and goes back to its 1982 position, then it can be discussed.
Major General Ijaz Awan said that in the current situation, after India changed the legal status of Kashmir under its administration, now not only Pakistan and India but also China is involved in this dispute as a third party.
Maj. Gen. (retd) Ijaz Awan said that after India declared its administered Kashmir as its "integral part", it has declared its disputed border with China, which was known as the Line of Actual Control, as an international border. "Therefore, it is important to identify the whole region on the ground and the three countries must recognize it. In this situation, the withdrawal of troops from Siachen has now become a complex process," he said. However, his (Indian Army Chief's) statement is welcome.
He said the statement by the Indian Army Chief was apparently welcome as Pakistan had been pushing for the withdrawal of troops from the Siachen Glacier for more than three decades.
Amir Rana, a security expert and analyst, told the BBC that the statement by the Indian Army chief was welcome but that the withdrawal of troops from Siachen was premature.
He says this has been Pakistan's position for a long time, but the conditions that India has negotiated could create difficulties in the process.
India's future can be decided only after clear conditions come to light.
Defense analyst Lieutenant General (retd) Amjad Shoaib said that withdrawal from Siachen was not acceptable to Pakistan in the current situation. He further added that this withdrawal is possible but for that India has to create an atmosphere of trust.
"I think the evacuation is difficult now because India cannot be trusted. India has occupied these areas in the past and today when it is in the hands of China, it is difficult," he said.
Major General (retd) Ijaz Awan said that this could be acceptable to Pakistan only if India returned to its position of 1982. "I think Pakistan has to take China into confidence before any consensus or understanding can be reached with India," he said.
He said that withdrawal of troops from Siachen was possible but only if the three countries namely India, Pakistan and China agreed on the terms to come. ''And it remains to be seen what the conditions will be.'' These terms and conditions need to be clarified.
Major General (retd) Ijaz Awan commented that Siachen is the highest battlefield in the world and keeping troops there is very difficult and expensive for both the countries.
''There is no better way than to withdraw troops from both countries,''In winter, when the temperature drops to minus 50 degrees Celsius.
Who will benefit from the withdrawal of troops from Siachen?
According to Major General (retd) Ijaz Awan, the statement from India at the moment means that "India is thinking in its own interest." By withdrawing about 3,000 of its troops from here, not only does it want to save money economically, but it is also thinking of increasing its presence by deploying them on the Gwalwan border.
According to him, after the border dispute with China in the Gulwan Valley, India wants to increase its presence there because it fears that if China launches any movement in the future, its burden will fall on the Indian Army in the north. Then it will be as difficult for India as riding an elephant on a mountain.
Defense analyst Lieutenant General (retd) Amjad Shoaib also told the BBC that India was today talking of demilitarizing Siachen for its own benefit as it was stuck in front of China in Ladakh.
He says that Ladakh is also a cold and high front like Siachen, so India has come to realize that it will have to stand up to China and save the other. "India wants to get rid of the toughest front in the world on its own terms," he said.
He said that as India is stuck at the moment, Pakistan can take advantage of this situation by persuading India to push back.
According to Aamir Rana, in the current situation, it will benefit India and Pakistan as well as China.
He said that while India and Pakistan would have economic benefits from withdrawing their troops from there, a reduction in tensions between India and Pakistan would also benefit China under the Belt and Road project.
However, after the tension between India and China in Ladakh, China has become a major player and Pakistan will surely take China into confidence in this regard.
"Pak-India peace and the situation in Afghanistan have a lot to do with the success of China's Belt and Road project."
Siachen is the world's highest military front
Located at an altitude of about 20,000 feet in the Karakoram mountain range, the Siachen front is considered one of the world's unique battlefields.
Pakistani and Indian forces have been at loggerheads here for more than 35 years, and despite losing between 3,000 and 5,000 troops and millions of dollars, the military authorities of the two countries have not been able to persuade them to withdraw.
The Indian government had told Parliament in 2018 that since 1984, it had spent more than Rs 7,500 crore on purchasing clothing and mountaineering equipment for the troops stationed on this high front.
Siachen was also affected by the 1999 Kargil incident between Pakistan and India, but by 2003, Pakistan's new Chief of Army Staff, General Pervez Musharraf, and Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee were positive about restoring trust. Progress was made and by the end of the same year a ceasefire agreement was reached on the Siachen front along with the LOC.
But the issue of withdrawal of troops and demarcation of borders could not be resolved.
In April 2012, an avalanche at a battalion headquarters of the Pakistan Army at Gyari killed 140 soldiers. After which the two countries held a joint meeting in the same year but the matter could not move forward.
Despite the fact that guns have not been used in Siachen for more than a decade and a half, both sides have been unable to show any flexibility in their core position.
India is adamant that its military supremacy and its real ground position (AGPL) on this front be legitimized and recognized by the Baloch.
On the other hand, Pakistan's view is that the Shimla Agreement should be adhered to and the position of the troops should be determined under it.