Protests in Kazakhstan signal end of Nazarbayev era?
In the first week of January, Kazakhstan was engulfed in a wave of anti-government protests. President Qasim Jomart Tokayev has called the protests "terrorist riots" and declared war on them.
Regardless of when and how these demonstrations end, one thing is clear: they will result in the loss of influence in the government of Kazakhstan's "Quaid-e-Millat" and former President Nursultan Nazarbayev. Although he stepped down in 2019, he retained a key role in government.
The background to these demonstrations
The protests began on January 2 against rising oil prices in the country's oil-rich western region of Mangitao, which spread to other parts of the country, and finally ended on January 5 with President Qasim Jomarat Tokayev and "Quaid-e-Millat" Nazarbayev. They took the form of protests against the government.
Following reports of widespread violence, vandalism and looting in the media, President Tokayev announced a crackdown on protesters, calling them foreign-trained "real terrorists."
He also appealed to the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russian-led organization of former Soviet states, on January 5 to help him overcome the unrest in the country. The CSTO immediately dispatched a peacekeeping force the next day, which included Russian troops from other countries.
On January 5, President Tokayev accepted the resignation of the government cabinet. On the same day that the protests were at their peak, they announced the decision to replace Nazarbayev, the head of the National Security Council and former president.
After stepping down as president, Nazarbayev maintained his influence over the current president as head of the Security Council.
What will be the effect on Nazarbayev?
The Security Council is the country's constitutional body, and Nazarbayev empowered it before leaving the presidency in 2019 to maintain its grip on power even after his resignation. He had also appointed himself life chairman of this important institution.
He oversaw national security and defense policies, and President Tokayev was required to "keep in touch" with Nazarbayev for appointments to all important positions. This gave the 81-year-old former president the opportunity to appoint his close associates to key positions, strengthening his grip on the administration, the legislature, the judiciary and the military.
After Nazarbayev's removal, Tokayev's hands are now open and he can replace his predecessor with his own team. It was impossible to do this before the protests. On January 5, he fired Nazarbayev's longtime ally and Prime Minister Askar Mamin. Nazarbayev's other close associates, including the head of the National Security Committee, Karim Massimov, were subsequently removed from office.
The expulsion of Nazarbayev and his comrades from power is not the only sign of the end of his term. One of the slogans that came to the fore during the protests was 'shawl cut', meaning 'go old', which shows that there is no place for them in the politics of the country.
The image of his statue being torn down in his hometown of Almaty is an important symbol of this change.
On January 5, Kazakhstani social media users speculated that Nazarbayev had left the country. These speculations are reinforced by the fact that he has not been seen since the protests, while President Tokayev has spoken on national TV three times in two days, ''in which he called for peace and to be with the people Promised''.
The future of former President Nazarbayev
President Tokayev will continue to replace former Nazarbayev supporters in the government in the near future, provided he succeeds in overcoming the protests. It will also affect close relatives of the former president who have been part of the government.
They include her son-in-law, Timur Klibayev, who heads the National Association of Merchants.
However, the Nazarbayev family's monopoly on hydrocarbon reserves could be a major obstacle for President Tokayev to strengthen his grip on power. Despite being ousted, Nazarbayev controls the Samurik-Kazina, an independent fund managing key national assets.
The fund is state-owned, but pirate analysts sometimes call it a state. In 2020, Nazarbayev estimated that Samaruk-Kazina's assets were worth 70 70 billion, or 40% of Kazakhstan's gross national product.
Who is Nursultan Nazarbayev?
Nursultan Nazarbayev was President of Kazakhstan from 1990 to March 19, 2019, and on March 19, 2019, he announced his sudden resignation.
He was elected President of the Soviet Socialist Republic of Kazakhstan in 1990 and liberated his country during the breakup of the Soviet Union.
In the December 1991 presidential election, he was elected unopposed President of Independent Kazakhstan. An amendment to the constitution in 2007 gave him the power to run for president as long as he wanted. In 2010, he was given the title of 'Quaid-e-Millat'.
In 2015, he was elected President of the country for the fifth time. Nursultan Nazarbayev began his career as a laborer in a steel factory. He was also an official of the Communist Party. His father, Abish Nazarbayev, was a farmer and herdsman.