What was the Iran nuclear deal and can the world powers re-establish it?
Iran and a group of the world's major powers are set to resume a major nuclear deal in Vienna next week (Monday, November 29).
Recently, tensions have been rising in the Middle East over Iran's nuclear ambitions. Israel has allocated 1.5 1.5 billion to its armed forces to defend against a possible attack on the country's nuclear facilities.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has warned that it has failed to reach an agreement with Iran on inspections of key installations.
Iran has always rejected efforts to develop nuclear weapons and has said it would welcome the resumption of an old agreement with world powers that limited its nuclear activities in exchange for easing economic sanctions.
If the talks succeed, it could lift economic sanctions on Iran and limit the production of potentially dangerous nuclear material in the future.
But if the talks fail, it could put the Middle East on a dangerous path.
What was in the old nuclear deal with Iran?
The agreement was between P5 + 1 (five permanent members of the UN Security Council, the United States, Russia, China, Britain and France, as well as Germany) and Iran.
Iran has agreed to accept sanctions on its uranium enrichment and stockpiling, to shut down or modify facilities at various nuclear sites, and to allow international nuclear inspectors to visit the facilities. In return, several international financial sanctions on Iran were lifted.
P5 + 1 believed that the agreement would prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. Iran hopes the lifting of sanctions will boost its troubled economy.
The agreement was reached in January 2016 after lengthy negotiations.
Why did the contract end?
The agreement was signed during Barack Obama's presidency, but Trump made it clear long before he arrived at the White House that he thought it was the "worst deal" and repeatedly called it "terrible" and "ridiculous." Declared satire.
He said Iran's control over its nuclear activities was too weak, and that the agreement should have included sanctions on Iran's ballistic missile program, and that the terms of the agreement would not last long.
President Trump pulled the United States out of the deal in May 2018 and reimposed sanctions on Iran.
In response, Iran began enriching uranium beyond the limits set in the agreement and reduced its cooperation with international inspectors.
Who wants to restore the agreement?
Apparently, every party that had earlier signed the agreement now wants to restore it.
Iran never wanted the deal to be scrapped, and only the United States, one of the P5 + 1, wanted to scrap it during Trump's presidency.
When President Biden was the country's vice president, he backed the deal, and most of his current advisers on Iran were people who helped negotiate the terms of the deal in 2015.
So will the recent negotiations be successful?
There are obstacles to the success of these talks. Iran is angry with the United States over the termination of the agreement, calling it an "unbridled government."
Iran needs the United States to lift sanctions, while Washington's focus is on stopping Tehran from enriching uranium. Everyone wants the other side to move forward first. Due to these issues, the United States cannot meet directly with Iran during the talks.
In June, the Iranian people elected Ibrahim Raeisi as the new president, who is considered to be more strict on foreign policy. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has promised that he will not allow the talks in Vienna to waste time.
He also ruled out any talks on Iran's ballistic missile program and its regional policies, including support for armed groups in several countries, but agreed in Vienna by several Western countries. These terms are required to be included in any new agreement.
These factors may seem to make it more difficult to re-implement the agreement.
Will everyone be happy with the return of this agreement?
Iran's main regional rival, Saudi Arabia, cautiously backed the old deal.
But Israel (considered the only nuclear power in the Middle East, although it never ratified it) was very critical of the original agreement. Israel believed it would still allow Iran to move toward acquiring nuclear weapons.
Israel has previously carried out air strikes on the nuclear facilities of two other countries in the region. Israel has said it will never allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons.